Posted on 18 June 2009
Merrill Lynch, a leading player in the global financial circuit has said the Turkish economy will start growing by the 3rd quarter of this year, after suffering heavy quarterly losses of above 6% in the first half of the year.
Their analysis has led them to forecast a 0.5% growth in Q3 and a 2.5% growth in Q4, making the annual result a shrinkage of just 2.5% for the Turkish economy. They then forecast a growth of 3.2% in 2010.
There are certainly plenty of factors to suggest that the Turkish economy is bottoming out in preparation for recovery. Industrial output grew 1.4% in April, Capacity Utilisation was up 3.6% in the same month, and unemployment stopped falling in March and in fact a 0.3% growth in employment was recorded.
None the less: a big factor in the forecast of Merrill Lynch coming true will be the Turkish tourism season which began at the beginning of May.
The Association of British Travel Agents forecasts that tourism from Britain to Turkey will grow by 25% this year, as we revealed on this blog after speaking to ABTA. The strengthening Pound, now worth 2.54 Turkish Lira will help this enormously.
However, there will need to be similar growths from all Turkey‘s tourism markets, including its major market Germany, if it is to see visitor numbers grow to 30million this year.
If that growth does come, the revenues from that will undoubtedly be massively beneficial to the Turkish economy, and could easily lead the economy back into positive growth territory in the latter part of the year.