Posted on 11 June 2009
It does indeed seem that the worst of the international downturn maybe upon us. I have been cautious about positive news in the past, because it has been easy to dismiss one single positive indication as a statistical anomaly. But right now, there is just too much positive news from too many sources to not feel quietly optimistic.
Reports are circulating of a GDP growth of 0.1% in the UK on the back of increased manufacturing output in March and April and increased retail trade in May, retail trade also increased in the EU according to Eurostat. And Turkey has not let the side down; the Turkish Statistics Institute revealed yesterday that Turkish capacity utilisation rose for a third consecutive month in May.
Capacity Utilisation, which is a key indicator of growth in the manufacturing industry and the wider economy, grew rose by 3.6 percentage points month-on-month to 70.4 percent, but was 12.0 percentage points lower than a year earlier. It rose 2.1% month on month in April.
Economists are predicting a strong summer in Turkey, from tourism revenues alone. There is currently a lot of debate in the press about whether or not Turkish Prime Minister should make the necessary concessions to secure a standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Famous economist Steve Hanke has said he shouldn’t because it would reduce the credibility of his government. Hanke is forecasting an early recovery for Turkey, and basically thinks that Erdogan should make sure that his government and their own economic management gets the credit.