Posted on 03 October 2009
The IMF has just issued its World Economic Outlook and it is very positive on the Turkish economy. Unfortunately the report is generalised, but I picked out the following on Turkey:
- Sizable output gains forecast in 2010 (page 77)
- 3.7% GDP growth forecast in 2010 – among strongest of all emerging European economies (page 78)
In the press briefing Oct 1, Jorg Decressin, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division gave a detailed answer on their findings for Turkey in the Q&A. He told of the strong rebound in the Turkish economy in the second quarter, he said:
It is true that activity contracted very deeply in Turkey, especially in the first quarter of this year. However, in the second quarter, there has also been a very strong rebound in the Turkish economy. In terms of quarterly growth rates, from the first to the second quarter, growth was about 7 percent. If you annualize this, this is 25 percent. So, it has been a pretty solid rebound.
Decressin also hinted at the highly positive forecasts that the report would contain on the Turkish economy, he said:
If you compare Turkey to other emerging European countries, what you will notice is that the decline in activity in 2009 is deeper than in other emerging European countries. However, the recovery that we are projecting for 2010 is also stronger. So, Turkey is more cyclical, its economy is more cyclical than that of other emerging European countries, and that is because of the large size and importance of the manufacturing sector in Turkey.
As regular readers of the blog will know, the IMF and Turkey have been locked in negotiations about IMF financial assistance for Turkey, it is easy to see why many people believe Turkey can manage without it.