Turkish Economy Powering Out of Recession

Posted on 01 May 2010

The Turkish Trade deficit doubled from $2.4 billion to $5 billion in March, according to the latest data from Turkish statistical institute Turkstat. The widening is being seen as a positive sign, because it is based manufacturing companies increasing their purchases of raw materials as they ramp up production, on the back of the economic expansion. And also because Turkish citizens buying more imported goods because the recession is easing.

According to Turkstat, Turkish exports increased 22% year-on-year in March to $10 billion, while imports grew 43% year-on-year to $15 billion.

This would normally be seen as less positive, but under the circumstances it is very positive for the Turkish economic outlook. When the recession struck, manufacturing companies slowed their buying because of economic uncertainty, the fact that manufacturers are now increasing their stock levels points to increased confidence in the economic recovery from the manufacturing sector.

And rightly so, the Turkish economy emerged from recession in the final quarter of last year, with a year-on-year growth of 6%, beaten only by China. Several of the world’s leading economists have now got behind the prediction of a 10% increase in Turkish GDP for the first quarter, and most economists are now predicting 5-6% growth in the Turkish economy for this year, including those at the International Monetary Fund.

These believes have been fuelled by incredible growths in industrial production in January and February — year-on-year growth of 12.1% and 18.1% respectively.

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