Les investisseurs étrangers restent méfiants face à la volatilité des taux de change induite par le référendum dans l'UE

Les investisseurs britanniques à l'étranger et les investisseurs étrangers au Royaume-Uni surveillent de près alors que nous entamons le dernier mois avant le référendum sur l'UE, désireux de repérer les signes de la direction du vote et de la réaction de la livre sterling face aux devises.

Depuis décembre 2015, Sterling has taken a bumpy downward path from £1/€1.41 to a low point of £1/€1.23 en avril. toutefois, as polls increasingly indicate growing support for remaining in the EU, Sterling is retracing lost ground, fluctuating by the day and is currently hovering around £1/€1.275. Its performance against the dollar has been less dramatic since the start of the year, falling from £1/$1.477 à £1/$1.38 but recovering, albeit on a bumpy path, to its current £1/$1.44 rate.

Overseas property buyers have been one group of people most exposed to the volatility in exchange rates. Par exemple, someone who exchanged £200,000 for euros on 19th February would have found himself with €258,906 to spend on his dream home overseas. toutefois, had he made the exchange on 21st February, he would have had just €256,213, a difference of €2,693 in just two days.

Many buyers will be holding off committing to a purchase until after the Referendum. Cela dit, some buyers will have judged the likely outcome for themselves well in advance and act accordingly, while others will wait until the weeks before, when a clearer indication of the outcome can be predicted. Currently the What UK Thinks: EU Poll of Polls is showing 52 per cent for the 'remain' camp and 48 per cent for the 'leave.'

The figures have moved no more than three percentage points further apart for the past six months. In all likelihood, the anticipation of an exit vote would be likely to weaken the pound, while a predicted vote to remain in the EU would be expected to seriously strengthen sterling's position across the board. Pendant ce temps, all eyes will remain on the exchange rate as the referendum date approaches.

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